What will happen in ten years?

Discussion of music production, audio, equipment and any related topics, either with or without Ableton Live

What will DAW developers do ten years from now?

They’ll settle for a “final version” and keep on selling that.
1
1%
They’ll keep on inventing new stuff forever and people are going to buy it.
55
79%
They’ll go bankrupt.
4
6%
They’ll figure out how to make cash differently.
10
14%
 
Total votes: 70

BoddAH
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What will happen in ten years?

Post by BoddAH » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:22 pm

I’m wondering how the DAW industry will look in ten years. It’s a relatively recent business. All major DAWs started modestly, all had their respective early issues, strengths and weaknesses. All had major updates every couple of years and have become better and better. To a point (now) where they’ve actually all become quite similar.

Everybody’s still trying to pull off the “major update”, every couple of years. Selling a brand new version with many "awesome features" for a few hundred bucks to anybody who can afford it. But I don’t really see that going on forever. Eventually, DAWs there will be nothing worthwhile to add to an already overall complete product in order to make money.

I’m really curious to what will happen then. Do you think those companies can survive on the continued sales of a single version of their software for years? Do you think they’ll be able to develop new awesome features to implement and sell for big money forever? Do you think they’ll find another way to make money (instruments, samples, related hardware, etc.)? Or do you simply think they’ll eventually collapse and go bankrupt, with all that this implies (no more support, etc.).

I’m curious. :mrgreen:

fx23
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by fx23 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:39 pm

hopefully, they won't ALL do the same choice with same results....

Some may prefer keeping sell in secure way their cash cow soft even if getting weird buggy or miss drastic features

while some will point inovation and users request. Now could that lead to first one go bankrupt that's the question..

McQ714
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by McQ714 » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:11 pm

:? :? :?

wascal
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by wascal » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:58 pm

Continual updates to allow for full use of the ridiculous computing power in 10 years time I'd guess.

Also wouldn't be shocked if companies started some kind of subscription based licencing when cloud computing becomes the norm and wifi coverage and bandwidth increases. Accessing your sequencer (running on an uber fast server over uber fast network) on any thin client PC from anywhere in the world 8O
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BoddAH
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by BoddAH » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:15 pm

wascal wrote:Continual updates to allow for full use of the ridiculous computing power in 10 years time I'd guess.

Also wouldn't be shocked if companies started some kind of subscription based licencing when cloud computing becomes the norm and wifi coverage and bandwidth increases. Accessing your sequencer (running on an uber fast server over uber fast network) on any thin client PC from anywhere in the world 8O
That’s an interesting post.

Mind = blown

hacktheplanet
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by hacktheplanet » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:19 pm

You are spinning the "major update" thing very negatively!

There's nothing wrong with a software company responding to changing technology and user demands by continuing to develop their product and *gasp* CHARGING MONEY FOR IT! How the hell can software continue to be developed if there is no money? Developers won't work for free (usually). How about the Korg Legacy Collection? There was a time right after Apple went x86, and many KLC users were fucked because they had to stick to the old crappy PowerPC architecture in order to use their synths (Yes, I was one of them, and I was very sad :(.). If Korg had just said "Deal with it." they would have lost a lot of revenue. Korg responded and released new versions of their software, and everyone is happy now.

I would most likely not use Live if Ableton decided just to say "Welp, arbeiten ist abgeschlossen!" and called it a day after version 4. If people will pay for it, software companies will continue to develop their products. If software companies develop good products, people will pay for them. It's a symbiotic relationship.
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BoddAH
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by BoddAH » Thu Nov 18, 2010 10:29 pm

the_planet wrote:You are spinning the "major update" thing very negatively!

There's nothing wrong with a software company responding to changing technology and user demands by continuing to develop their product and *gasp* CHARGING MONEY FOR IT! How the hell can software continue to be developed if there is no money? Developers won't work for free (usually). How about the Korg Legacy Collection? There was a time right after Apple went x86, and many KLC users were fucked because they had to stick to the old crappy PowerPC architecture in order to use their synths (Yes, I was one of them, and I was very sad :(.). If Korg had just said "Deal with it." they would have lost a lot of revenue. Korg responded and released new versions of their software, and everyone is happy now.

I would most likely not use Live if Ableton decided just to say "Welp, arbeiten ist abgeschlossen!" and called it a day after version 4. If people will pay for it, software companies will continue to develop their products. If software companies develop good products, people will pay for them. It's a symbiotic relationship.
I don’t think I turned the major update thing too negatively.

I’ll gladly spend my hard earned money on new releases of software with awesome new features. I did it many times in the past. But I think we’re slowly reaching a point where it’ll become more and more difficult for developers to come up with features that aren’t already implemented and for which people will feel a need.

I’m not looking forward to it, in fact it would be pretty sad if an awesome company like Ableton lost momentum but especially as a product that focuses on simplicity, workflow and anti-bloat I already feel like Live is “near” perfect and anything you could add would just bloat it. I don’t know about anybody else but once Live 8 is stable (they can hardly charge for that) they’ll have a tough time selling me on a new version.

hacktheplanet
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by hacktheplanet » Thu Nov 18, 2010 11:36 pm

BoddAH wrote:I’m not looking forward to it, in fact it would be pretty sad if an awesome company like Ableton lost momentum but especially as a product that focuses on simplicity, workflow and anti-bloat I already feel like Live is “near” perfect and anything you could add would just bloat it. I don’t know about anybody else but once Live 8 is stable (they can hardly charge for that) they’ll have a tough time selling me on a new version.
I'm with you on this one... Sorta. I haven't upgraded from 6 yet because I cannot justify spending money on upgrades since I use Live in a very limited fashion (also because I'm broke right now heh heh heh). However, there is always room for improvement. I would spend money on an upgrade if Ableton developed:

Tabbed Sets (I understand that this could get pretty complicated)
Multi display support
Extensive audio -> MIDI plugins (namely, velocity or note -> MIDI or CC)
Automatic clip summing or crossfading options (when you drag them around)
Scrubbing with a MIDI knob
Support for multiple audio interfaces simultaneously (without having to create aggregate devices in the OS)
Ability to apply effects specifically onto clips
Video clips in session view with video output options and maybe some basic video effects
More cool Bridge features

(if something is already implemented that I've listed here, lemme know and I'll buy the upgrade right away :) Also, I do know that you can do a lot of this stuff with MAX, and I have been also considering that.)

However, the one thing that I'm REALLY interested in that Ableton has developed after version 6 are the external instrument/effect plug. I have been dreaming about that feature since version 4, and have *almost* pulled the trigger on the 8 upgrade a number of times.

So I'd agree with you that Live's workflow is near-perfect and (IMO) way ahead of the competition... But I still think there are many features Ableton could implement without bloating Live. I am of the opinion that additional sample packs and instrument racks can "bloat" Live, but I like that I have the option not to purchase and install them if I choose.

That being said, I'm planning to upgrade as soon as 9 is released. Based on Ableton's track record, 9 should have some pretty amazing new stuff to play with that I can't work without. :)
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davepermen
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by davepermen » Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:32 am

BoddAH wrote:I’m not looking forward to it, in fact it would be pretty sad if an awesome company like Ableton lost momentum but especially as a product that focuses on simplicity, workflow and anti-bloat I already feel like Live is “near” perfect and anything you could add would just bloat it. I don’t know about anybody else but once Live 8 is stable (they can hardly charge for that) they’ll have a tough time selling me on a new version.
this is always true, in about any industry. initial product = fresh and new, something different. evolves on it, enhances, evolves more into the same every other product is, 'saturates' and at some point get overrun by the next initial product, that is fresh and new.

happens very often, and companies don't like it. it normally means they don't exist that long. so they try to find a way to create a product instead that will not just be a "phase". but look at f.e. microsoft and their image. it's really hard to get "hip and cool" again. even while they completely rewrote their os, their office product, have other stuff like xbox, complete new phones, etc.. it's still "the old computer software company". just as apple can't reintroduce a new ipod and make the same impact. which is why they search for new products and markets themselves. last big one, the ipad.

which is why i'm for a new product, a rewrite. supporting to import the old sets, but just install the new one in parallel.
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Leon Tricker
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by Leon Tricker » Fri Nov 19, 2010 9:46 am

The advances in music production/performance software and hardware will not be as revolutionary in the next ten years as they have in the last 10 years.

The big software/hardware companies will focus more and more on the mass market. DAWs and software controllers will be come homogenised as the big players compete for the centre ground.

Companies will still be creating plug-ins that incorporate wooden end cheeks in the GUI.

There will still be great ideas and innovations from independent, left-field developers. But we'll still be hacking together ways of integrating these really good ideas into our mainstream software applications.

davepermen
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by davepermen » Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:05 am

one thing that i'm curious about is, how does indy-software development look like in the future? if you look at nowadays iphone apps, you see much more small developers doing quick tiny tools they need. that would not have been possible that easily years ago. so if software development for the ordinary guy evolves in that way, it might be possible that we might program our needed extensions ourselves quickly without having to learn much (max4live failed at that for me).

so yeah, mainstream big apps will be there, but maybe they will be easily extendable for ordinary people, so each one can bring it them to their limits in it's own creative way. like now, but with much less hassles.

we'll see.
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CFM
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by CFM » Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:21 am

They will not be able to continue to invent new stuff – the program may change as computer hardware differs but there is only a number of features a person really needs and only a certain number of soft devices people can use.

I would see the option for companies to go for a monthly subscription type of thing. You can get the program for free but extremely limited and then pay for different levels of use, get customer support and upgrades according to your subscription.

Oh, in some ways WAVES (effects) already do this.

crumhorn
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by crumhorn » Fri Nov 19, 2010 1:33 pm

Software develops slowly compared to hardware. For the most part we will be able to do all the same things as now only better: much lower latency, zero bottlenecks due to disk or sound card interface performance, glitch free audio, etc.

Some things that are expensive to do properly today will be cheap mass market products. Your average dell laptop will probably come with all the software and storage capacity to create a full length feature film with theatre quality audio and video.

Something with the capabilities of a system costing $2000 today will cost $50 and run on your phone.

Wireless everything - please!

The main thing that I would like to see is a practical implementation for real time collaboration via the internet.
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pepezabala
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by pepezabala » Fri Nov 19, 2010 1:58 pm

CFM wrote:They will not be able to continue to invent new stuff – the program may change as computer hardware differs but there is only a number of features a person really needs and only a certain number of soft devices people can use.
you are right, but wrong. Recording equipment exists since a long time, and since the 50s or 60s it has been top quality already (microphones, preamps, tapemachines for tracking I mean).

But there are a lot of features that have been added to the recording studios since then.

Things I can imagine for DAWs are:

- Multichannel output, new ways of panning multiple outputs etc.

- Everything that Melodyne does, but even more advanced/intuitive etc.

- Auto-arrangers. Have you seen "The mouth" from NI? While this appears to be a great gimmick, the near future might bring us DAWs that write and arrange funky horn sections or cheesy string parts automatically.

- Then they will resell everything again and again for each OS upgrade. after 64 bit we will get quadruple128bit or whatever. And the plugins and DAWS need to get upgraded.

And then there is the unimaginable, but that's not imaginable.

davepermen
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Re: What will happen in ten years?

Post by davepermen » Fri Nov 19, 2010 2:03 pm

there won't be an "after 64bit". at least, not for computers. maybe for server-groups one day. 64bit allows 4 billion times the memory than 32bit. not just 2x. that's enough for an ordinary computer.

but i agree with the auto-arange stuff. i'd love to see a DAW that integrates music theory to design melodies, instead of just placing notes. seen those as individual tools, but would be fun to have it integrated into the app for a nice workflow.

maybe, in 10 years, electronic music is not created by us, but by.. electronic systems. omg. as i like fractal music quite much, i'd be interested in what progresses there.
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