[OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

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crumhorn
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by crumhorn » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:48 am

Ed J wrote:In case anyone didn't know, most of the graphs you've seen about global warming are bollocks.

Did a lot about how meaningless graphs can be whilst still appearing to show a certain conclusion at uni, a great example of this (unfortunately I don't have the actual graph) is the fact that there is a correlation between the overall temperature of the planet, and *the decline in the number of pirates*.

Now, maybe we should all become pirates, so the world cools down again? ;)
LOL, but the difference is that correlation between CO2 and temperature can be explained by the verifiable mechanism of the greenhouse effect. Whereas the correlation between piracy and global warming can be explained by the increased wealth created by industrialised society which has made piracy less attractive as a life style compared to a regular job.
"The banjo is the perfect instrument for the antisocial."

(Allow me to plug my guitar scale visualiser thingy - www.fretlearner.com)

Emissary
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Emissary » Mon Dec 07, 2009 11:49 am

Ed J wrote:In case anyone didn't know, most of the graphs you've seen about global warming are bollocks.

Did a lot about how meaningless graphs can be whilst still appearing to show a certain conclusion at uni, a great example of this (unfortunately I don't have the actual graph) is the fact that there is a correlation between the overall temperature of the planet, and *the decline in the number of pirates*.

Now, maybe we should all become pirates, so the world cools down again? ;)
I agree with regards to global warming, but Oil vs population growth is possibly the most obvious correlation there has ever been. We have a society built on infinite growth. When an intellectual ideal of infinite growth meets the reality of finite resource there is only one winner. Energy IS population. Always has been and Always will be. Fossil Fuels are a stock energy source, you can use as much as you want as fast as you want until it runs out (which is what we have been doing) Solar energy is based on a constant flow of energy from the sun, the change is negligible in terms of power output. Its true we could cover deserts in solar panels and power much of the world (providing it wasnt cloudy) although electricty works on a first come first served basis, so those closest to the solar panels would reap the most benefits. But this has no effect on food production. The top soil has gone and it takes hundreds if not thousands of years to regenerate. The only possible realistic outcome for a continued population increase is if we all become (evolve) into cybernetic organisms pulling energy from the sun. But then that will be the extinction of the human race anyway.

Nicknackerski
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Nicknackerski » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:10 pm

Emissary wrote:
Nicknackerski wrote:
Emissary wrote:Do you want another one?
Do you have a harddrive full of ridiculous Oil Graphs or do you get them from graphs.com
:lol: :lol: :lol: but seriously can you point out the exact ridiculousness of them? I'd be interested to hear your criticism of verifiable fact. Or are you just flinging insults because you lack the intellect for debate
Haha hoho To be honest, i was trying to debate the issue of the link between over-population and pollution over the issue of CO2, but when you started coming out with ridiculous statements about 'star trek' missions to other planets in the interest of Mining, I thought you must be trolling again so i'd just join in and start being silly just like you.

Yes, i understand your Oil vs Population fairy tale(you could replace 'oil' with 'cheese' and that graph would still make sense ffs), its obvious, however its nothing new, shit, next you'll be telling me we went to war over oil and not the liberation of people.
How are you 'preparing' for the dark ages btw? Stocking up on batteries?
Carry on. :)

Nicknackerski
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Nicknackerski » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:26 pm

On another note, you're quite correct about the soil problem. Selenium in uk soils is very low but is an important part of our diet. Brazil nuts were the way round this as they are absolutley full of it showing uk soils being overfarmed.

Da hand
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Da hand » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:38 pm

Emissary wrote:
Ed J wrote:In case anyone didn't know, most of the graphs you've seen about global warming are bollocks.

Did a lot about how meaningless graphs can be whilst still appearing to show a certain conclusion at uni, a great example of this (unfortunately I don't have the actual graph) is the fact that there is a correlation between the overall temperature of the planet, and *the decline in the number of pirates*.

Now, maybe we should all become pirates, so the world cools down again? ;)
I agree with regards to global warming, but Oil vs population growth is possibly the most obvious correlation there has ever been. We have a society built on infinite growth. When an intellectual ideal of infinite growth meets the reality of finite resource there is only one winner. Energy IS population. Always has been and Always will be. Fossil Fuels are a stock energy source, you can use as much as you want as fast as you want until it runs out (which is what we have been doing) Solar energy is based on a constant flow of energy from the sun, the change is negligible in terms of power output. Its true we could cover deserts in solar panels and power much of the world (providing it wasnt cloudy) although electricty works on a first come first served basis, so those closest to the solar panels would reap the most benefits. But this has no effect on food production. The top soil has gone and it takes hundreds if not thousands of years to regenerate. The only possible realistic outcome for a continued population increase is if we all become (evolve) into cybernetic organisms pulling energy from the sun. But then that will be the extinction of the human race anyway.
Graphs show data and, unless the data has been falsified in some way, they do represent facts. Now how we interpret those facts is what makes the night and day difference. This is where you really have to be careful!

One thing we can start with right away is the word "correlation". Please remember from statistics 101 that:

Correlation does not imply causation

Therefore, correlation just means that there are two or more random phenomena happening at the same time. It does not mean that one actually causes the other to change in any way.

So when you say this:
but Oil vs population growth is possibly the most obvious correlation there has ever been.
I believe you are trying to say "dependence" and/or "causation" and not simply correlation. The term "correlation" is very often misused (and abused) to imply "dependence" and/or "causation" when there, in fact, is no proof of "dependence" and/or "causation". This is a very important distinction when dealing with facts and their interpretation.

Emissary
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Emissary » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:47 pm

Nicknackerski wrote:

Haha hoho To be honest, i was trying to debate the issue of the link between over-population and pollution over the issue of CO2, but when you started coming out with ridiculous statements about 'star trek' missions to other planets in the interest of Mining, I thought you must be trolling again so i'd just join in and start being silly just like you.

Yes, i understand your Oil vs Population fairy tale(you could replace 'oil' with 'cheese' and that graph would still make sense ffs), its obvious, however its nothing new, shit, next you'll be telling me we went to war over oil and not the liberation of people.
How are you 'preparing' for the dark ages btw? Stocking up on batteries?
Carry on. :)
My oil vs population fairy tale? Wow, i dont think i can debate someone who doesn't understand the simplest of simple ideas. Have fun in your magical world of infinite energy and infinite population growth and infinite food. I am preparing by firstly educating my friends and family to the problems coming our way. Secondly I have have been commissioned by the mayor of my small town to draw up an energy plan for the future of the town. I am currently learning about crop rotation from my local victory farmers and trying to get a community run farm setup on my local common ground next to our river. I know its much easier to bury your head in the sand and ignore everything thats coming, but i actually value human life and would like to see people I love survive rather than looking at me with dead eyes as they waste away from under nourishment. Which is exactly the horror you will be facing if you don't wake up to the changing paradigm . You can ridicule me as much as you want, but I am doing something about the state of humanity (even if its a small contribution) Whilst you piggy back on a dying mule that heading straight for a cliff. Carry on :D

hoffman2k
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by hoffman2k » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:57 pm

Emissary wrote:
Nicknackerski wrote:

Haha hoho To be honest, i was trying to debate the issue of the link between over-population and pollution over the issue of CO2, but when you started coming out with ridiculous statements about 'star trek' missions to other planets in the interest of Mining, I thought you must be trolling again so i'd just join in and start being silly just like you.

Yes, i understand your Oil vs Population fairy tale(you could replace 'oil' with 'cheese' and that graph would still make sense ffs), its obvious, however its nothing new, shit, next you'll be telling me we went to war over oil and not the liberation of people.
How are you 'preparing' for the dark ages btw? Stocking up on batteries?
Carry on. :)
My oil vs population fairy tale? Wow, i dont think i can debate someone who doesn't understand the simplest of simple ideas. Have fun in your magical world of infinite energy and infinite population growth and infinite food. I am preparing by firstly educating my friends and family to the problems coming our way. Secondly I have have been commissioned by the mayor of my small town to draw up an energy plan for the future of the town. I am currently learning about crop rotation from my local victory farmers and trying to get a community run farm setup on my local common ground next to our river. I know its much easier to bury your head in the sand and ignore everything thats coming, but i actually value human life and would like to see people I love survive rather than looking at me with dead eyes as they waste away from under nourishment. Which is exactly the horror you will be facing if you don't wake up to the changing paradigm . You can ridicule me as much as you want, but I am doing something about the state of humanity (even if its a small contribution) Whilst you piggy back on a dying mule that heading straight for a cliff. Carry on :D
Maybe this needs a new angle:

If the world doesn't use all the oil for fuel, cheap plastic crap will get even cheaper!

or

If the world doesn't use petroleum as fuel, Vinyl Records could get cheaper to make.

If all else fails

Buy an electrical car or I kill this bunny!

Image

Nicknackerski
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Nicknackerski » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:04 pm

Ok, i'll stop being nasty if you do :D

All forms of Energy no matter where/how sourced from originated from the sun. All energy comes from the sun.
My argument is, when we eventually run out of oil, surely there must be another source of energy on this planet that can sustain us,

Look up Pebble bed reactors, they coat Nuclear fuel with a ceramic coating making them marginally more safer than current nuclear fuel technology. It is also these that are under research for the efficient manufacture of Hydrogen for Hydrogen fuel cell cars and batteries etc.

Lets just say for argument that this was the solution that saves us all (LOL Doomed i say), we still have to find a way of faciliting a massive increase of people. My original link showed the 10 most toxic places on earth, IMO this will eventually happen to us all like it has already happened to developing countries.

I'm not telling you what i do for a living.

cheers (see i'm being nice :D )

Emissary
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Emissary » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:30 pm

Nicknackerski wrote:Ok, i'll stop being nasty if you do :D

All forms of Energy no matter where/how sourced from originated from the sun. All energy comes from the sun.
My argument is, when we eventually run out of oil, surely there must be another source of energy on this planet that can sustain us,

Look up Pebble bed reactors, they coat Nuclear fuel with a ceramic coating making them marginally more safer than current nuclear fuel technology. It is also these that are under research for the efficient manufacture of Hydrogen for Hydrogen fuel cell cars and batteries etc.

Lets just say for argument that this was the solution that saves us all (LOL Doomed i say), we still have to find a way of faciliting a massive increase of people. My original link showed the 10 most toxic places on earth, IMO this will eventually happen to us all like it has already happened to the most poor countries.

I'm not telling you what i do for a living.

cheers (see i'm being nice :D )
Well thanks for being nice. But you pointed out something very interesting there. Your very right that oil originates from the sun, but what i'm getting at is that we have just basically used up billions of years worth of sun energy in about a century. That is now coming to an end and we will have to revert back to deriving energy from the sun in the here and now (which does not fluctuate and can only support a certain level of population) Hence you can see that population reduction is not simply an interesting point of view, it is a fact based on the laws of science.

Nuclear Energy is possibly an interesting thing to look at, but again Uranium is a finite resource and there is only enough left to power around 50% of the current human populations homes, never mind powering the billions of cars (which would all have to be modified at massive cost. Or are you suggesting everyone goes out an buy a brand new car for £30,000 at a time when many cant even afford their next meal). And again nuclear power does nothing for food production. My main point here is all about current food production being unsustainable, and with lessening food on the planet it naturally follows that population will decrease. The only debatable point is whether we will achieve population reduction through

a) The Education and the understanding of all human kind that it is in our best interests not to breed like rats
b) Government sponsored sterilisation of certain sections of society ( The Poor)
c) Through a mass collapse of our culture and infrastructure.

I'll leave it with you to debate which is the most likely to occur.

Green Lemon
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Green Lemon » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:35 pm

Nicknackerski wrote:Ok, i'll stop being nasty if you do :D

All forms of Energy no matter where/how sourced from originated from the sun. All energy comes from the sun.
My argument is, when we eventually run out of oil, surely there must be another source of energy on this planet that can sustain us,

Look up Pebble bed reactors, they coat Nuclear fuel with a ceramic coating making them marginally more safer than current nuclear fuel technology. It is also these that are under research for the efficient manufacture of Hydrogen for Hydrogen fuel cell cars and batteries etc.

Lets just say for argument that this was the solution that saves us all (LOL Doomed i say), we still have to find a way of faciliting a massive increase of people. My original link showed the 10 most toxic places on earth, IMO this will eventually happen to us all like it has already happened to developing countries.

I'm not telling you what i do for a living.

cheers (see i'm being nice :D )
You don't have to tell me what you do for a living, but I'd be very curious if you could explain how the energy in nuclear fuel rods comes from the sun.

The trouble with debates like this (and the evolution "debate") is that 99% of people aren't qualified to have an opinion, but don't let that get in their way.

About determining correlation from large amounts of unrelated data (something very useful when sifting through the traces of millions of years of geology): One very useful tool used is finding multiple data correlations which point to the same result, but are themselves unrelated. Get it? So like, if we examine fossil tree ring growth and the CO2 content in ice samples from that same time period and they both would seem to support the same hypothesis, like for instance the earth had a certain concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, then we can reasonably advance our thinking in that direction. Does this prove anything? No. Gravity is unproven, BTW. Some things we just get over and make the best call we can.
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Green Lemon
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Green Lemon » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:41 pm

Emissary wrote: a) The Education and the understanding of all human kind that it is in our best interests not to breed like rats
b) Government sponsored sterilisation of certain sections of society ( The Poor)
c) Through a mass collapse of our culture and infrastructure.

I'll leave it with you to debate which is the most likely to occur.
There's at least one more possibility, which is:

d) We recognize the cliff we are hurtling towards in time to shift our methods of production and consumption and avoid the worst of the pain.

I'll leave it with you to debate how likely that is- but personally, I know which one I'm fighting for.
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Green Lemon
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Green Lemon » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:43 pm

And also, Emissary, you must be aware that you are making the classic Malthusian argument, that Malthus himself was wrong, and that every time in history since then someone has made that argument, they have been wrong. What makes you so fervently sure?
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Nicknackerski
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by Nicknackerski » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:51 pm

Green Lemon wrote:The trouble with debates like this (and the evolution "debate") is that 99% of people aren't qualified to have an opinion, but don't let that get in their way
Thats fine and you're totally correct (including me also). :D

All i was trying to prove/debate/suggest is that all life on earth is not necessary going to go towards whatever statistic's or theories may suggest.
I cannot explain exactly how Nuke fuel is produced from the sun but, that does not mean it ain't true. It is true (fact)

Indirectly, the sun or other stars are responsible for ALL our energy. Even nuclear energy comes from a star because the uranium atoms used in nuclear energy were created in the fury of a nova i.e. a star exploding.

Many thanks.
Nick
Last edited by Nicknackerski on Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

stringtapper
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by stringtapper » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:52 pm

Green Lemon wrote:And also, Emissary, you must be aware that you are making the classic Malthusian argument, that Malthus himself was wrong, and that every time in history since then someone has made that argument, they have been wrong. What makes you so fervently sure?
Just because his prediction has not been realized in the past 200+ years doesn't automatically mean that it's not possible that it could.
Unsound Designer

smartass303
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Re: [OT] Man-made global warming : myth or fact?

Post by smartass303 » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:57 pm

Emissary wrote:
a) The Education and the understanding of all human kind that it is in our best interests not to breed like rats
b) Government sponsored sterilisation of certain sections of society ( The Poor)
c) Through a mass collapse of our culture and infrastructure.

I'll leave it with you to debate which is the most likely to occur.
different conclusions, same outcome.

therefore: +1

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