Humans bad at predicting their future

Discussion of anything not related to audio or music production
beats me
Posts: 23319
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm

Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by beats me » Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:17 pm

I heard about a recent study that determined people are really bad at predicting where they will be mentally, emotionally, and financially in the future.

Here’s some questions that drilled the point home.

Pick your favorite band now and think about what you think you would be willing to pay to see them live 10 years from now.

Here’s the kicker. Figure out your favorite band 10 years ago. How much would you be willing to pay to see them live now?

Unsurprisingly people were willing to pay a lot more to see their favorite band now in the future than their favorite band from 10 years ago. The excitement and interest doesn’t last. That could be applied to a lot of factors in life.

nathannn
Posts: 3315
Joined: Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:38 am
Location: U.S.

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by nathannn » Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:35 pm

Interesting * stroking chin*

But they are right, My favorite band 10 years ago was Deftones. I think now, some one would have to buy me tickets, buy all my drinks, and drive me down in a limo in order for me to even care.
It also could be that after ten years most bands either evolve there style so much that they lose their fan base or they dont bother to evolve and lose their fan base.

When it comes to Radiohead and The cure Im still willing to pay what I thought was top dollar ten years ago to see them now. That would be like 50 dollars.
The Push / Novation Launch Pad / Novation Launch Pad Pro / Novation Launch Key
/ Launch Control XL / Machine MkII / Machine Studio / BeatStep / Livid OhmRGB / Livid Code V2 / Apc 40 MKII

no computers or synths

20 Copies of Ableton Live Lite.

beats me
Posts: 23319
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by beats me » Fri Jan 25, 2013 7:43 pm

For me now it’s less about money and more about getting my unmotivated ass to the venue, and the bigger the venue the less I’m interested.

I think I’d still pay to see NIN though, possibly the only band I feel l was there from day 1 and all through the journey.

nathannn
Posts: 3315
Joined: Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:38 am
Location: U.S.

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by nathannn » Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:00 pm

With me its more about already knowing what the experience will be like. At a deftones show its going to be packed in a hall like sardines with a bunch of guys sweating and people stepping on the back of your shoes, and the finest drink the bar serves would be budlight.
The Push / Novation Launch Pad / Novation Launch Pad Pro / Novation Launch Key
/ Launch Control XL / Machine MkII / Machine Studio / BeatStep / Livid OhmRGB / Livid Code V2 / Apc 40 MKII

no computers or synths

20 Copies of Ableton Live Lite.

andydes
Posts: 2917
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:53 pm
Location: Bremen

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by andydes » Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:43 pm

Then why are major music festival headliners acts always the big hitters from yesteryear? Everyone's reforming and charging megabucks for concerts.

If this study is right, then everyone should be dead excited to see the latest new talent. As it should be.

nathannn
Posts: 3315
Joined: Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:38 am
Location: U.S.

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by nathannn » Fri Jan 25, 2013 8:59 pm

andydes wrote:Then why are major music festival headliners acts always the big hitters from yesteryear? Everyone's reforming and charging megabucks for concerts.

If this study is right, then everyone should be dead excited to see the latest new talent. As it should be.
The way im looking at it is they (or whoever made this study) are talking about your favorite band from the ten years ago , not bands but one single band. In my case its right, and ten years prior to this it would have been right. There's bands that where not my favorite ten years ago but are on every playlist I have.
Bands like The cure, Radiohead, Depeche Mode, At the Drive In, early Saves the day and Thrice,I still would want to see all of them if they played a show, but with Deftones Im not that hyped up to see them as much anymore.
The Push / Novation Launch Pad / Novation Launch Pad Pro / Novation Launch Key
/ Launch Control XL / Machine MkII / Machine Studio / BeatStep / Livid OhmRGB / Livid Code V2 / Apc 40 MKII

no computers or synths

20 Copies of Ableton Live Lite.

beats me
Posts: 23319
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by beats me » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:11 pm

andydes wrote:Then why are major music festival headliners acts always the big hitters from yesteryear? Everyone's reforming and charging megabucks for concerts.

If this study is right, then everyone should be dead excited to see the latest new talent. As it should be.

It seems like festival’s today are targeting whatever demographic they think has the most money to burn and the fact that the current hot artists aren’t the headliners I think also points to the harsh reality that due to short attention spans and oversaturation younger people just don’t hold individual artists in high regard as the older generation. Instead of having a handful of artists major labels throw their PR money at there’s now literally thousands popping up on a level playing field of social discovery.

simmerdown
Posts: 3761
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 3:36 pm
Location: Northwest Nowhere

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by simmerdown » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:13 pm

damn beats thats some insightful shit, for real

doesnt explain Nick Cave headlining tho, wtf, never was popular, and for good reason imo

beats me
Posts: 23319
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by beats me » Fri Jan 25, 2013 9:34 pm

I don't get Nick Cave either, but for some reason I give him more respect as a headliner than RHCP. There's some weird story or connection with Cave, as opposed to the Headliners for Life card RHCP seem to possess regardless of relevance.

Forge.
Posts: 5792
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by Forge. » Sat Jan 26, 2013 2:41 pm

10 years ago I didn't have a favourite band at all... only DJ mixes and Producers.... it was all clubs and drugs and somethin bout those little pills unreal the thrills they yield until they kill a million braincells

you'd probably have to pay me to go to a club nowadays

I'm going to see the Stone Roses in March. Much more excited about that. And I'll be stone- ... cold sober.

knotkranky
Posts: 4336
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: la

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by knotkranky » Sat Jan 26, 2013 4:13 pm

Maybe it's cuz the future hasn't been that important to humans until recently. Evolutionarily speaking. Planning and projects have expanded from hunting in the morning to wheat harvests' to 50-year-build aquaduct projects. 1 man planning to thousands of men on projects. For real tho, my life turned out verrrrry different from my reality when i thought i was planning a future. Throw in the fact that we change our memories over time, and we've made a pretty good mess of what we're planning next, lol.

Angstrom
Posts: 14679
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:22 pm
Contact:

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by Angstrom » Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:53 pm

I'm pretty sure that a person in their 40s is better at anticipating their future behaviour than a person in their teens, or 20s.
I've seen a lot of scenes come and go, so I'm pretty fine when a scene starts to wane. However some of my younger friends flap like drowning men as their first love starts to go under. It's interesting to see, and hard to tell them " dude, let it go" .


Angstrom
Posts: 14679
Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:22 pm
Contact:

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by Angstrom » Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:10 pm

Yep, but I think "the end of history illusion" wanes as you get older.
Simply seeing how much you and your friends have changed makes you think "I'll probably be completely different in future too"

Or at least - I think that about myself. I have no idea what I will be like in ten years time, if I am even around then. But when I was 20 years old I was pretty convinced my tastes and lifestyle would remain the same forever. I think that " the end of history illusion" wanes with age and experience. Unless you count the thought : I know I won't stay the same because I never have.

Forge.
Posts: 5792
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: Humans bad at predicting their future

Post by Forge. » Sun Jan 27, 2013 1:55 am

Angstrom wrote:I'm pretty sure that a person in their 40s is better at anticipating their future behaviour than a person in their teens, or 20s.
I've seen a lot of scenes come and go, so I'm pretty fine when a scene starts to wane. However some of my younger friends flap like drowning men as their first love starts to go under. It's interesting to see, and hard to tell them " dude, let it go" .
did you see that fairly recent "lawyer's cut" Monty Python doco? A couple of them were making the slightly depressing comment about how as you get older things get more predictable and you also laugh less because you've heard all the jokes before...

I definitely agree it's more of a younger thing to be bad at predicting things... I guess you get more existential as you get older because you see the triviality in a lot of things and reshape your plans from wild and ambitious to mild and realistic.

I am frequently amazed to realise how many of the big musicians I used to listen to were in their 20s when they did some of their best work. I feel like I was just a kid without a clue in my 20s.. the beatles were mostly 30 or under by the time they split.

Ian Curtis was dead at 23!! 8O

Post Reply