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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:53 pm 

Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:22 pm
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mikemc wrote:
Angstrom wrote:
Yep, but I think "the end of history illusion" wanes as you get older.
Simply seeing how much you and your friends have changed makes you think "I'll probably be completely different in future too"

Or at least - I think that about myself. I have no idea what I will be like in ten years time, if I am even around then. But when I was 20 years old I was pretty convinced my tastes and lifestyle would remain the same forever. I think that " the end of history illusion" wanes with age and experience. Unless you count the thought : I know I won't stay the same because I never have.


"... he writes as he adjusts his leather cyberhelmet, the sun dimly glowing off an old Arzach poster over his desk... :D



:lol:

I'm a 50/50 mix of embarrassed/ impressed

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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 1:26 am 

Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
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Location: Earth
slightly off topic, but the "end of history illusion" bit made me think of it.

I've been watching some documentaries recently on youtube like Niall Ferguson's and others like them, often things along the lines of "is the west history", "party's over, how the west went bust' and other kind of 'watch out! the Chinese will take over the world while we collapse into oblivion!' type things, and I also watch a lot of political things, middle east etc...

As a result of my choice of viewing I get a lot of 'related videos' recommended about apocalyptic doomsday scenarios. It's amazing how many there are out there. There's a kind of end of the world obsession, kind of like 'fear porn' and Youtube has provided a major outlet for people to scare the shit out of each other.

I have noticed a lot of the world war 3 stuff is largely linked to Christians, at least it doesn't usually take long for someone to bring up Revelations or explain why Obama is the anti-christ.

But I think the obsession is not confined to christians. There's the Alex Jones crowd who are convinced their Satanic government is rubbing their scaly hands together waiting to murder most of the worlds population and stick RFID chips in the rest to use them as slaves in their diabolical new world order.

There are also still even videos about global nuclear holocaust.

Ferguson actually did talk about this end of the world pre-occupation near the end of one of his videos, and it makes a lot of sense in psychological terms that knowing we are mortal leads to a tendency to project that knowledge onto the world at large. I guess we are also acutely aware of really genuinely apocalyptic things we have done to each other throughout our history, so there is always a lurking fear that something like that will happen again.

Anyway, I'm not sure where I'm going with this.. I just noticed that yesterday and was thinking about this pre-occupation people seem to have with the end of the world.


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 3:08 am 

Joined: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:22 pm
Posts: 12591
One thing you might notice about End Of The World believers is that their particular EOTW is generally in favour of their own world views, and is also going to wipe away all the things they don't like.

For example: the Christian EOTW will raise all people such as themselves into a paradise of warm handshakes from Jesus. Meanwhile wiping away an array of sinners including immoral sexualists, homosexuals, people of other religions, that guy with the untidy lawn, and Uncle George who never paid back that 50 bucks he owes me.

The New Age EOTW : will shift all people such as themselves into a paradise of next level energy vibrations and raised concious indigo backslapping alignments. Meanwhile all gun club owners, stern parental figures of all kinds and people who drink beer and watch the Superbowl unironically will collectively fall on their knees and say "oh, you were right, you were right all along, I can now see your glowing chakra of ultra-correctness and from this point onward serve your world view"


It's odd nobody has an Apocalypse that actually threatens them! Christians will remain undamaged by the christian EOTW. And New-agers will be untroubled by their new-age EOTW.

Meanwhile ... nobody ever has an imminent apocalypse which will kill everybody they know, but will raise to heaven some other people who they are unfamiliar with. "All I know is we and all our friends are going to die, but at the same time some mysterious fortunate ones will live in splendour. But just not us." That is nobodies Apocalypse.


tldr;
apocalypse fever is just idiots desperate to be proven ultimately right, and everyone else to be given a kicking.

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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:55 am 

Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
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Location: Earth
Except I suppose the reason I mentioned it was because I noticed a new version of it which is "the end of the west" - fear of financial armageddon or economic collapse.... or 'end of the world as we know it - there's loads on there about the big economic collapse

But the Alex Jones crowd are well into that too... they seem to see it as a lead up to their dystopia. I guess in relation to what you're saying though - maybe you're right in that the armageddon scenario a lot of them seem to see involves a collapsed society where only the survivalists with hordes of guns to defend themselves against bands of marauders will survive... maybe if you are a gun nut that scenario would be appealing?

Ironically the "Party's over: how the west went bust" BBC 2-parter I watched started off with an urgent "newsflash: end of the world is nigh" tone to it and then at the very end after travelling all over the world to illustrate this apparent thesis on how doomed the west was he came to the conclusion that the extent of it will most likely be that Britain will gradually go back to a state of 1% growth as opposed to the 3% during the excess period of boom and it won't really make all that much difference after all and Britons still earn 10 times more than the Chinese for comparative jobs.

Niall Ferguson is a bit more of an Empire-o-phile (Imperiophile? there must be a real word for that) and publicly spoke out in favour of Mitt Romney and he seems to promote a bit more of the view that the US aren't aggressive enough in their imperial activities to effectively ward off the Chinese ascent to world dominance and pretty soon we'll all be working for Chinese wages for Chinese companies. Not to put words in his mouth...

There is another version for those who are afraid the Muslims will take over the world and impose Sharia law on everyone. Then there is the counter version focusing on the Zionists. In fact for just about any possible position you can imagine there is some kind of imagined apocalyptic scenario that is just around the corner waiting to ruin everything for everyone.


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:23 pm 

Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:15 pm
Posts: 13005
Location: The Wild West
:lol: @ EOTW philosophy by Angstrom.

well stated. i never thought of it that way but it surely is... in addition to the examples already used; Scientologists, Mormons, Jim Jones, even stringtapper are all about their personal perspective and desire for... mo betta as seen through my eyes.

in terms of Western Economic disparity... hell, deep down a part of me would love to see an economic collapse... just so that the Wall Street frat boys and powers that be can suck it. at the end of the day though i know they will somehow be okay while the rest of us scrounge around for dented cans of chili or what ever we can get our hands on to survive.


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:43 pm 

Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm
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Location: San Jose, CA
When people make comparisons to the fall of the Roman Empire they think that just means the end of the party for the rich. What they don’t acknowledge (or probably don’t know) is the fall of the Roman Empire also launched Europe into hundreds of years of chaos and some even feel it stunted the growth of civilized society. We’d be a lot further ahead now if that never happened. The fall of the Roman Empire didn’t lead to equality or utopia for the poor.

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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:42 am 

Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
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beats me wrote:
When people make comparisons to the fall of the Roman Empire they think that just means the end of the party for the rich. What they don’t acknowledge (or probably don’t know) is the fall of the Roman Empire also launched Europe into hundreds of years of chaos and some even feel it stunted the growth of civilized society. We’d be a lot further ahead now if that never happened. The fall of the Roman Empire didn’t lead to equality or utopia for the poor.


there's a lot of problems with the Roman empire comparison though - Probably first and foremost, they didn't have nuclear weapons. I think it's easy to underestimate the significance of that because we kind of forget they are there, but the MAD principle still exists. There just can't be a major war that changes the balance of power like there used to be before 1945 any more because no one could really win it. That's why the cold war dragged on for so long, because they had to work out more covert ways of vying for power because they couldn't go head to head without wiping out the entire planet. So eventually economics won out. In many respects it's amazing the Soviet union held on for as long as they did.

Personally I think it's actually very unlikely that China will even become a real 'super power' because while they might be likely to take over economically in terms of GDP in the near future, they have a few things going against them that won't allow them to have the same kind of influence as the US. Firstly, they are already really an empire, and a hell of a lot of their effort goes into just keeping that together. There's 1.3 billion, and a huge portion of them are still living in real poverty. Literally hundreds of millions. In fact more than the entire population of the US. This is why the government is so brutal whenever any resistance springs up, because they just can't risk it spreading. The whole country could disintegrate.

Niall Ferguson was talking about the growing nationalism in young people, and kind of alluding to the possibility that they may get militant if their economy collapses and go to war, but they would be more likely to implode if that happened. They have real genuine worries of people in their millions starving if the economy goes belly up. It's easy to not really understand just how many people live there. While the numbers might make them seem powerful from the outside, holding that number of people together is a massive deal.

And going to war is not feasible, again, the nuclear weapons play a big part in that. They can't ever really have a proper war with the US, because apart from the possibility of it escalating to nuclear (and at this point it's thought that they have way less nukes than the US too BTW) the bigger issue is that their economies are so interdependent that it is almost like a MAD principle economically as well.

Their economic growth is completely dependent on other countries (mainly US and Europe) buying their stuff, so if they go down the Chinese go down with them.

And on top of that, they are already artificially propping up their economy with things like ghost cities. This is one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJ ... r_embedded

Actually I think we have more to be concerned about the possibility of their bubble bursting.

For all the economic problems in the west, there is still an insane amount of wealth here. All the fuss in the media about economic meltdown is really more about it no longer being stupidly massively insanely excessive, now it's just insanely excessive.


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:59 am 

Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 8:58 pm
Posts: 301
beats me wrote:
I heard about a recent study that determined people are really bad at predicting where they will be mentally, emotionally, and financially in the future.

Here’s some questions that drilled the point home.

Pick your favorite band now and think about what you think you would be willing to pay to see them live 10 years from now.

Here’s the kicker. Figure out your favorite band 10 years ago. How much would you be willing to pay to see them live now?

Unsurprisingly people were willing to pay a lot more to see their favorite band now in the future than their favorite band from 10 years ago. The excitement and interest doesn’t last. That could be applied to a lot of factors in life.


-- BREAKING NEWS -- You will not be the same person your are 5, 10 or 20 years from now.

People change. Though, just because your older, it doesn't necessarily mean your any wiser.


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:49 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 6:39 pm
Posts: 19387
Location: San Jose, CA
Forge. wrote:
beats me wrote:
When people make comparisons to the fall of the Roman Empire they think that just means the end of the party for the rich. What they don’t acknowledge (or probably don’t know) is the fall of the Roman Empire also launched Europe into hundreds of years of chaos and some even feel it stunted the growth of civilized society. We’d be a lot further ahead now if that never happened. The fall of the Roman Empire didn’t lead to equality or utopia for the poor.


there's a lot of problems with the Roman empire comparison though - Probably first and foremost, they didn't have nuclear weapons. I think it's easy to underestimate the significance of that because we kind of forget they are there, but the MAD principle still exists. There just can't be a major war that changes the balance of power like there used to be before 1945 any more because no one could really win it. That's why the cold war dragged on for so long, because they had to work out more covert ways of vying for power because they couldn't go head to head without wiping out the entire planet. So eventually economics won out. In many respects it's amazing the Soviet union held on for as long as they did.

Personally I think it's actually very unlikely that China will even become a real 'super power' because while they might be likely to take over economically in terms of GDP in the near future, they have a few things going against them that won't allow them to have the same kind of influence as the US. Firstly, they are already really an empire, and a hell of a lot of their effort goes into just keeping that together. There's 1.3 billion, and a huge portion of them are still living in real poverty. Literally hundreds of millions. In fact more than the entire population of the US. This is why the government is so brutal whenever any resistance springs up, because they just can't risk it spreading. The whole country could disintegrate.

Niall Ferguson was talking about the growing nationalism in young people, and kind of alluding to the possibility that they may get militant if their economy collapses and go to war, but they would be more likely to implode if that happened. They have real genuine worries of people in their millions starving if the economy goes belly up. It's easy to not really understand just how many people live there. While the numbers might make them seem powerful from the outside, holding that number of people together is a massive deal.

And going to war is not feasible, again, the nuclear weapons play a big part in that. They can't ever really have a proper war with the US, because apart from the possibility of it escalating to nuclear (and at this point it's thought that they have way less nukes than the US too BTW) the bigger issue is that their economies are so interdependent that it is almost like a MAD principle economically as well.

Their economic growth is completely dependent on other countries (mainly US and Europe) buying their stuff, so if they go down the Chinese go down with them.

And on top of that, they are already artificially propping up their economy with things like ghost cities. This is one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJ ... r_embedded

Actually I think we have more to be concerned about the possibility of their bubble bursting.

For all the economic problems in the west, there is still an insane amount of wealth here. All the fuss in the media about economic meltdown is really more about it no longer being stupidly massively insanely excessive, now it's just insanely excessive.



So when a comparison to the fall of the Roman Empire is made it shouldn't be looked at as a regional collapse, but a global collapse. I think the shockwave that was felt as a result of the US experimenting with selling mansions to McDonald's employees pretty much proved that one.

I heard somewhere that the vast majority of Chinese aren't even aware of being a super power or that they are even capable of becoming one. They're too busy trying to survive and can't be bothered with such grandiose concepts.

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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:16 am 

Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:16 pm
Posts: 5581
Location: Earth
beats me wrote:
I heard somewhere that the vast majority of Chinese aren't even aware of being a super power or that they are even capable of becoming one. They're too busy trying to survive and can't be bothered with such grandiose concepts.


exactly - they already are an empire, it's just been around for so long that's kind of been forgotten, but so much just goes into keeping that together I don't think world domination is high on their agenda

the problem is more when they start setting up in africa to try and make it a bit easier to get the resources they need to make the shit they are exporting to us the west starts viewing it in terms of their own reasons for doing that kind of shit and gets all threatened


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 Post subject: Re: Humans bad at predicting their future
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:57 am 

Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:15 pm
Posts: 13005
Location: The Wild West
Forge. wrote:
[ This is one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJ ... r_embedded


agreed.

i started a thread about this a few years back. it's fuckin creepy mang!


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