Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

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beats me
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Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by beats me » Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:30 pm

Or so I read. Pepper with skyrocketing school debt, cash heavy corporations reducing spending, and VC firms waking the fuck up and realizing they are throwing billions at companies that don’t make any money. The shit is going down, bitches!!

Of course I’m self-involved and naïve enough to think my lower middle class status will benefit from this while the top 20% will have to take a kick in the teeth. It’s important to have dreams.

TomViolenz
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by TomViolenz » Thu Dec 04, 2014 2:51 pm

beats me wrote:Or so I read. Pepper with skyrocketing school debt, cash heavy corporations reducing spending, and VC firms waking the fuck up and realizing they are throwing billions at companies that don’t make any money. The shit is going down, bitches!!

Of course I’m self-involved and naïve enough to think my lower middle class status will benefit from this while the top 20% will have to take a kick in the teeth. It’s important to have dreams.
The low oil price is a weapon in an economic war by the US and Saudi Arabia against Iran and Russia.
As soon as the desired objective is reached, this will pass.

beats me
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by beats me » Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:01 pm

Seems like Putin’s only strategy is to return to the days of the USSR’s Greatest Hits. They had a few good decades of the country not being run by a complete madman, but all good things must pass.

Also read that the US is now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia, whatever that ultimately means.

TomViolenz
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by TomViolenz » Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:15 pm

beats me wrote:Seems like Putin’s only strategy is to return to the days of the USSR’s Greatest Hits. They had a few good decades of the country not being run by a complete madman, but all good things must pass.
I'm really no friend of Putin, but what you are writing is only the result of the wests propaganda.

He is as little a mad man, as it was an oopsie for the EU not to allow the free trade plans between Ukraine and Russia to go forward, if the Ukraine wanted to associate with the EU, neither was the plan to get the Ukraine into NATO.
Something everyone knew, Putin could not let happen.
This is a global powerplay by the US and its EU lap dogs.

Just as the posturing of NATO is meant to make sure that the New Cold War will happen.

Putin reacts very predictably and is a willing participant though, as Nationalism always helps with oppressing your internal enemies.

beats me
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by beats me » Thu Dec 04, 2014 3:48 pm

I’m sure politically things are a little (lot) more intricate, but I recall a German gentleman back in the 30’s who went “There’s a lot of Germans in that territory over there so we’re just going to absorb that territory, m-kay.” and the Germans in those territories went “Oh fuck yeah!”. Shortly after things went slightly sideways.

TomViolenz
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by TomViolenz » Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:26 pm

beats me wrote:I’m sure politically things are a little (lot) more intricate, but I recall a German gentleman back in the 30’s who went “There’s a lot of Germans in that territory over there so we’re just going to absorb that territory, m-kay.” and the Germans in those territories went “Oh fuck yeah!”. Shortly after things went slightly sideways.
That situation as well was a little more complicated ;-)
(If you mean the Sudentenland)

But yes, the whole "these people are Russians, so it's ours" is also just a convenient tale. Just as "we care about democracy for the people of Ukraine" is for the the EU and US.

The truth is much more along the line:

US: We want to sell our liquified NG, but no one wants it. Let's make a market for it in the EU (which has been a good customer for Russian NG so far). And a new cold war would be great for our Industrial Military Complex and riling up our citizens so they forget who the real threat to them is (us). Besides we don't have much trade with Russia anyways.
Russia: We don't want a Nato basis too close to our borders and we consider Ukraine to be in our global sphere of influence. And riling up our citizens....(see above)
EU: Honestly this one still has me puszzled :?
It seems we have nothing to gain and everything to lose from going this route. Russia supplies cheap natural gas. We have huge trade with them. And they are a huge and potentialy dangerous nuclear power, right next to where we live.

Qui bono in Europe and how?!

beats me
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by beats me » Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:38 pm

Maybe the West just needs a return to classic white on white violence with well-matched opponents, at least theoretically. Steamrolling through the Middle East for 2 decades has become played out, unbalanced, and indecisive.

ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends » Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:48 pm

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doghouse
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by doghouse » Thu Dec 04, 2014 5:58 pm

ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends wrote:is the quarter pounder back to a quarter pound yet? 8)
Dunno, but the triple cheeseburger is here!

ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends » Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:10 pm

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beats me
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by beats me » Thu Dec 04, 2014 6:36 pm

Oh great. Another thread and world crisis that will get sidelined by endless shrimp. :x

steko
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by steko » Thu Dec 04, 2014 7:53 pm

<cough>

Oil Price Fall: Saudi Arabia targets US Shale Oil, Iran, Iraq, Russia | Informed Comment
It is clear that among the major losers in the fall in the price of Brent crude petroleum from $115 a barrel last summer to about $75 a barrel today are Russia, Iraq and Iran. Petroleum sales are 50% of Russia’s income, and are also central for Iran and Iraq.

But the big loser will likely be shale oil producers and prospectors in the US, who probably cannot make a profit if the price falls into the 60s.

The cause of the fall, by $40 a barrel, in petroleum prices since last summer is almost completely on the demand side. Asian economies, especially China, are dramatically slowing, and won’t be requiring as much petroleum to fuel trucks, trains and cars to deliver people and goods around the country
Background U.S. Energy Outlook:

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publi ... /weo-2012/

- http://www.iea.org/publications/freepub ... nglish.pdf:
The tide turns for US energy flows
Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America – and the energy sector. The recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge – and steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030. This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy- importing countries.
Rahad Jackson wrote:My Awesome Mix Tape #6

ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by ohigetbywithalittlehelpfrommyfriends » Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:02 pm

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TomViolenz
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by TomViolenz » Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:37 pm

Yes the shale gas in the US is also suffering. I read it explained (on Spiegel Online not Prawda ;-)), that the US ally is probably doing this with consent of the US for now, because of the bigger geo political picture (harming the other players mentioned).

I figure once the EU cut off the Russian gas imports, in further to be expected sanctions (they just put unilateraly an end to the pipeline project through Bulgaria), the US plans to jump in as the knight in shining armor and sell us their LNG. I don't think it's a coincidence that a hugely expensive shipping terminal to transport LPG with ships had just been finished in the US right before the whole Ukraine kerfuffle started.

Which in my opinion is the real objective of the whole "antagonize Putin, so he does something crazy so we can restart the cold war" thing.

Joe Bidens son Hunter btw, is heavily invested in a gas project in (western) Ukraine. (Just like Cheney back in the day - the more things change.....)

steko
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Re: Dropping oil prices signals economic doom

Post by steko » Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:47 pm

The future is renewables - Europe should get rid of any energy-dependencies anyway…

And especially when it comes to Putin's russia!
Rahad Jackson wrote:My Awesome Mix Tape #6

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