ShelLuser wrote:You make some interesting points IMO and yes; you're absolutely right when you state that if a company looks rich it doesn't actually make 'm rich. Still, there are also a few points in which you contradict yourself IMO...
Well, I have no choice but to reply.
You are correct in that I do contradict myself in a couple of spots but it was a long ass post and I did not feel like editing it to perfection. So let me address those points.
First, you will notice that I said that Ableton is not quite yet at its maturity stage and as such still has a bit of room to grow. I however, do not see too much room and hence my posting about their future. I don’t disagree that there present is pretty solid but it’s the future I worry about more. This also addresses individuals like you, although I understand there is a lot of you’s out there, they diminish with each new customer. There is a lot of people coming on board now, as there should be since they are still growing and introducing new ideas/partnerships.
Next,
ShelLuser wrote:How would this make sense? Its not that long since 8 was released, they merely started off with the committed launchpads like the Novation and the APC's and for every one of the products you can be sure they get a commission.
Sure, however they also have partnerships they must pay for like Big fish and AAS. On top of that, commissions such as you mentioned do not prop up a whole company, once again you misunderstand my point about looking at the future and not necessarily right now. We all know that the product at present is selling well and should be for the near future which presumably will Include Ableton 9 and possibly 10.
ShelLuser wrote:Next you seem to forget another big player in this market, even though you quickly mentioned them. Too quickly to my liking: Cycling '74 with Max for Live. There's more cash flow but most of all: free Ableton extensions along the way with (even more important:} totally free and usable new ideas. Why bother to invest time and money into desperately trying to come up with something new? No; sell a magic box and let your users come up with the new ideas. Most of 'm will be generous enough to share their ideas which allows you to pick up on those and maybe even toss the better ones right back into your product. Not a one of one copy, but still.. The idea is often worth more than the implementation itself. And here they're getting paid and free new ideas along the way.
I do not forget the “Big Player” instead I do not think that this is a game changer to their business model. Yes it is a game changer to how we see and use live but does not do too much for Ableton in terms of new revenue streams. I would be willing to bet that most of the $299 is going to Cycling as it is mostly their technology. I see this as more of a selling feature for Ableton rather than a source of revenue.
”Bizon” wrote:I believe the fixing of the current version was more of a publicity move than anything. We all have seen discussions regarding what features will be in a new version whether it was 6, 7, or 9, the thread is usually overwhelmed with “fix the current version before releasing a new one” comments.
ShelLuser wrote:Yet this time they didn't release 9 as you sort of expected. IMO that sort of contradicts your own story. I know, you believe they pulled it at the last minute. I think that's very paranoid and contradicts your story even more, making it even a little silly (no offense).
You know what development costs? You know what marketing costs? It would really cost them dearly to suddenly withdraw a release (throw away the invested time and effort) instead of simply releasing it.
I don’t think they pulled it completely, that would be stupid. I do however, believe they delayed it until everyone is satisfied with the quality at which point they will release the new version. My prediction of this is sometime before the summer, but once again it’s just an opinion based on nothing other than my wacky ideas.
BTW, I love Ableton and I don’t plan on switching. But I do think about the future both my and Ableton’s and try to imagine what the world will be like in 2, 4, or even 10 years. I simply, from the limited knowledge available, don’t see how their business model is sustainable. Remember, a company must have growth prospects to be a good investment. At present, at least in my mind, it is not clear how they will accomplish this.
nice.