beats me wrote: Let's discuss the current state of Flash.
I was just contemplating this very subject not too long ago.
You are absolutely correct in your assessment of the transition to Flash alternatives. This isn't so much a switch FROM Flash, as it is providing an alternative. Many sites will now have a Flash piece - then a similar 'dumbed down' scene comprised of either HTML5 or modified Flash via Adobe AIR.
Adobe has also done something very smart in all of this: For the entire CS5 suite they've added a ton of new build software like Flash Builder which will take anything created in Flash and allow conversion to iOS devices, Android, Blackberry, etc. These tools take the animation and whatnot from Flash and rework the coding behind the scenes so that you keep the animation and other bits. The final conversion is then processed with a new version of Adobe AIR that gets it all running.
Where this falls apart, however, is in the actual conversion process. Your head would SPIN if you saw the amount of hand coding that has to be done with Flash Builder in order to get Flash to work. It's fucking MIND NUMBING and not for the faint of heart.
