McQ714 wrote:good job
now tell me i'm wrong. tell me you've had your own business.
In short : I started my first business 20 years ago, it was an online music sales company ludicrously before its time and way before it was profitable, however it led to us providing digital support and strategy advice for EMI & VMG and working with Warner and BMG, we also branched into providing digital media support to a number of Premier League clubs, including phone games, etc. up to 2001 when we sold it to a large chinese conglomerate. Since then I've run a separate company which provides corporate strategic guidance to NGOs and SMEs, specifically in relation to company management through integrated communication systems. Which we both build and provide guidance on.
So yes, I have run a company before now.
tell me how a business can be successful when each year the revenues dropped 40% from the previous year.tell me that truthfully is possible and i'll shut the fuck up.
let's start with a modest $1M
next year it'll be $600K
etc.
the simple fact is, your figures are
all worst-case scenarios. Sequential years of worst-cases. So far Ableton have suffered one release cycle of "worst-case" and publicly stated steps to rectify the issues that caused i, so consequently we should expect the next cycle to benefit from those steps taken. A bit like Win7 after Vista, Microsoft didn't just plow on into oblivion.
Graph
However, we can't assume that revenues of Ableton have
ever dropped into negative growth. In fact, we would be more sensible assuming that revenues grew, although possibly at a lower rate than previously. This is very common. Even when some users are vocal about issues, the product continues to gain market share and new adopters.
As much as fervent moany posters here might think that the company is shrinking by 40% year-on-year (!) More likely the last 2 years have seen slow growth, with minor vocal outspoken criticism from relatively few internet users. Consider how shit Windows Vista was, how terrible a company Microsoft are. Even they only experience a minor blip of -17% growth in 2008, and then straight back to +10%. We already know that Ableton are addressing any issues which arose previously.
Oddly this can often benefit a company who have previously sustained year-on-year growth of over %20 without any chance to implement management and process strategies to cope with this growth. A fallow year generally benefits the company as a whole because it allows re-assessment of structure and methodology, and as such following years deliver better user-satisfaction. In fact, we know that Ableton have done exactly this.
However, lets go along with your outlandish "consecutive years of failure" assumption, rather than the more standard, problem->resolution model Ableton and every other business ever created seem to be favouring.
What happens when a company
is not able to address issues ,is
not yearly steady decline, it is simply a sale of the company IP. You see, Live is a valuable IP with lots and lots of ties to hardware and software manufacturers. But
that is a very unlikely circumstance, especially in this sector. If your app has high brand loyalty, unique USP, and high visibility it is near impossible to kill off.
Do you remember in 2000 when NI was a byword for lack of customer support, abandonware and user-dissatisfaction, how this carried on for years?
Exactly how "out of business" do you estimate NI to be right now?
you see, the figures you are estimating are simply not realistic. Business just doesn't work so simply.
ha hahah yes.
] - they don't even seem to really notice if it crashes, or at least none of them ever bother to tell me that it did.